So my first attempt ended dismally, with paint pretty much everywhere except the intended location. I have since ordered and replaced the paint set (which is being handed down to my wife for craft projects). In the meantime, I did manage to salvage what little video there was, though I have edited out the associated audio to keep it family friendly.
The disaster ended up with a new pair of pants, a replacement shirt, and a few hours of cleaning the wall, desk, and floor. In the end, the miniature was barely touched by the intended paint.